Getting ready for the big storm
According to the forecast from Lee Bruce in several days Fedor will experience heavy weather and massive waves. The storm will cover all Southern Ocean from Antarctica to New Zealand.
Lee Bruce:
“Over the coming five days, Fedor will trade frustrating light and variable wind for 40-50kt and huge waves.
The low initially moves ENE at 20kt for 16-18 Feb–at a latitude of 65S to 62S, then slows and intensifies, and then accelerates again. So it is a fluid pattern, and we are looking out toward the far reaches of reliability in the forecast. But the outlook has been consistent in presenting gale SW wind across the entire Antarctica Cup Race Track from north to south.
I feel that we should be preparing for many hours of sustained 45-50kt or more, with gusts to 60kt or more. Because Fedor will be moving east with the wind field, he may be in wind above 40kt for 48 hours. It looks like the wind returns to a more normal 20+kt SW-to-NW pattern after the low.
Being a degree or two north of Fedor@@apos@@s current position may reduce, by several hours, the total time exposed to the worst wind, but it won@@apos@@t keep him out of it.
The 15 meters wave possibility should not occur the whole time, and some of that height will be as a long-period swell (12-15 seconds). Still the conditions are not to be taken lightly. Heights of 12 meters should be common.
The high wind speed plus a long fetch as the low moves toward the ENE could aid in the development of some waves that would be much, much higher – rogue waves. Of course, we can@@apos@@t predict them and Fedor can@@apos@@t do anything about one.
Lee
Quote from Fedor:
“It is raining non stop here. I have 1 reef on the main sail is full of rain water. I think may be 300 liters in the sail pocket. The wind still light but it looks we will have strong wind in 3 days time. Once stronger wind will fill in from N-W, I will try to come up North to set up for heavy weather, but forecast shows this Low pressure with very wide borders and will go beyond 50S. That means it will hit us even if we sail 2-3 degrees up. In the coming Low wind should be from S-W and 10-12 meters waves from S-S-W I think we can sail due east alongside Race Track. All is well on board. Getting ready for the bad weather: checked all lines, sheets, pins and split pins for the front stays and shrouds.
Fedor”