Fedor Konyukhov
enru

Forecast from Lee Bruce (Tactical Weather)

And although it is no guarantee, staying north should at least reduce the ice risk.
So I assumed a mostly easterly heading in a corridor of 50S to 51S through about 100W.
From there, we should start the process of getting to the Horn.

01/00Z: W 20-25kt (assumes port tack)

01/12: WNW 20-25

01/18: NW/NNW 20-25, bldg to 30-35 gust 40

02/00: NW 30-35 gust 40

02/06: WNW 25-30 gust 35 (wave total 4.5-6m; WSW swell plus wind waves)

02/12: W 20-25 bcmg WSW 20-25

03/00: W 20-25 bcmg WNW 20-25

03/06: NW 20 bcmg WNW to W 30 thru 04/12Z (waves WSW swell plus wind waves, for total of 6-7m, ocnl 8m; bigger to the south of 51S)

Lee

 

30/01/2009

Ice report

A "crack" in the night! Well we didn@@apos@@t hear this but we are now aware, thanks to our friends in the USA, that a few nights ago a very large Ice Burg coded B/15

Our weather router Mr Lee Bruce reported: "At least some of the ice you are seeing is from two large bergs farther South, that have been breaking up over the past two months."

Mr Bruce made contact with Professor Long at Brigham Young University (USA). He tracks bergs, but uses QuikSCAT satellite information, which cannot see bergs smaller than about 5km. "I told him about your ice encounters, Lee said, and Professor Long replied:

Lee, I am not surprised by your report. Both B15a and C19a have been breaking up over the last month or two and we have seen smaller pieces spreading all over the place. In all the years I@@apos@@ve been using scatterometer data to track icebergs, we have NEVER seen this much ice in this area. It in unfortunate that our sensor (which was never designed for this purpose) has relative coarse resolution and so can@@apos@@t see the small (less than about 5km or so -- still really big) to keep track of, especially since this small bergs produces smaller and harder to detect ice. Right now, the whole southern ocean over a wide area near the locations your report indicated have the potential for serious amounts of ice... Dr. David G. Long Director, BYU Center for Remote Sensing

Lee has asked a French company (CLS) if they would be interested in sharing their experimental ice detection data (garnered from satellite data that is processed by software to spot bergs). The French company provided iceberg data to the Vendee Globe fleet, so they understand the need for any assistance they may be able to afford us.

In the mean time we continue to sail in an Easterly direction with our forecast for the next three days very favorable. All the crew are happy that we are getting some serious miles under our keel although the other side of this is that it is more difficult to prepare meals.  Never mind the taste of a seriously large steak and a glass of red wine is getting closer by the mile.

Mark McRae

Forecast from Lee Bruce

Looks like useable wind for heading mostly east for several days. Dir shifts mainly in W to NW quadrant, so some deviation either side of 090T hdg likely.

Wind should freshen frm NNW 20-25kt by 18Z.

30/00Z: NNW 20kt. Squalls by 03Z ahead of front.

30/06: Front movg thru. Wind backs thru NW to WNW 20-25

30/12: WNW 20 bcmg NW 13-18

30/18: NW 13-18, bcmg NW 20-25

31/00: NW 20-25

31/12: N 20

31/18: NNE 30, bcmg WNW 30 as another front passes

Useable W to NW wind 15-30kt is in the outlook thru at least 03 Feb

Lee



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