Forecast from Lee Bruce (Tactical Weather)
Here@@apos@@s a wave chart that shows Fedor@@apos@@s projected position for 18/12Z. It is likely that there will be changes to that in coming days, but this chart may be of interest in that it shows the basic concern for Fedor….
If we assume that Fedor will be forced E or ESE as the wind increases from the SW and WSW, the exposure to 35+kt wind should be from 17/06Z to 19/12Z. Within that time block, the worst should be from 17/12Z through about 18/18Z.
Based on a point at 51S 172W (about 18 Feb 06Z), the maximum wave model forecast is 11.5m, occasionally 15m. But that is based on a wind forecast of 35kt gust 45kt, and I think that is too light for this system. So, 12m occasional 15m should be the minimum, with a risk of higher waves for the 36-hr period of 17/12-19/12Z.
We can adjust this as subsequent forecasts come in, but it seems that Fedor is in for some rough weather no matter what.
16/00-06Z-SE/ESE 13-18kt, becoming variable <10kt
16/06-12: Becoming SW 10-15
16/12-18: Becoming SW to WSW 25-30
16/18-17/06: WSW 25-30, becoming WSW 25-40 gust 50
17/06-18/18: Becoming WSW 40-45 gust 55-60
18/06-18/18: 45-50 gust 65
Gradually decreasing after 19/00Z
Lee